Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems.

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates

Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework

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Ocean acidification through the lens of ecological theory

Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other human-induced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population- and community-level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer–resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification and the ecological changes it portends

SCUBA divers as oceanographic samplers: The potential of dive computers to augment aquatic temperature monitoring

Monitoring temperature of aquatic waters is of great importance, with modelled, satellite and in-situ data providing invaluable insights into long-term environmental change. However, there is often a lack of depth-resolved temperature measurements. Recreational dive computers routinely record temperature and depth, so could provide an alternate and highly novel source of oceanographic information to fill this data gap. In this study, a citizen science approach was used to obtain over 7,000 scuba diver temperature profiles. The accuracy, offset and lag of temperature records was assessed by comparing dive computers with scientific conductivity-temperature-depth instruments and existing surface temperature data. Our results show that, with processing, dive computers can provide a useful and novel tool with which to augment existing monitoring systems all over the globe, but especially in under-sampled or highly changeable coastal environments

Seagrass can mitigate negative ocean acidification effects on calcifying algae

The ultimate effect that ocean acidification (OA) and warming will have on the physiology of calcifying algae is still largely uncertain. Responses depend on the complex interactions between seawater chemistry, global/local stressors and species-specific physiologies. There is a significant gap regarding the effect that metabolic interactions between coexisting species may have on local seawater chemistry and the concurrent effect of OA. Here, we manipulated CO2 and temperature to evaluate the physiological responses of two common photoautotrophs from shallow tropical marine coastal ecosystems in Brazil: the calcifying alga Halimeda cuneata, and the seagrass Halodule wrightii. We tested whether or not seagrass presence can influence the calcification rate of a widespread and abundant species of Halimeda under OA and warming. Our results demonstrate that under elevated CO2, the high photosynthetic rates of H. wrightii contribute to raise H. cuneata calcification more than two-fold and thus we suggest that H. cuneata populations coexisting with H. wrightii may have a higher resilience to OA conditions. This conclusion supports the more general hypothesis that, in coastal and shallow reef environments, the metabolic interactions between calcifying and non-calcifying organisms are instrumental in providing refuge against OA effects and increasing the resilience of the more OA-susceptible species.E.B. would like to thank the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoas de Nível Superior (CAPES) for Masters funding. Funding for this project came from the Synergism grant (CNPq 407365/2013-3). We extend our thanks to the Brazil-based Projeto Coral Vivo and its sponsor PetroBras Ambiental for providing the Marine Mesocosm structure and experimental assistance.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

The calcareous brown alga Padina pavonica in southern Britain: population change and tenacity over 300 years

Understanding long-term persistence and variability in species populations can help to predict future survival, growth and distribution; however, sustained observations are exceedingly rare. We examine and interpret a remarkable record of the calcareous brown alga Padina pavonica (Phaeophyceae) at its northern limit on the south coast of England (50°N, 1–3°W) from 1680 to 2014, which is probably the longest compilation and review of any marine algal species. Over this period, which extends from the middle of the Little Ice Age to the present, there has been considerable variability in temperature and storminess. We identified a significant number of site extinctions in the second half of the nineteenth century, which coincided with cooler conditions and stormier weather. To interpret thesechanges, we measured recruitment, growth and production of tetraspores at sheltered and exposed sites in 2012–2014, years which had low and high spring temperatures. Potential spore production was greater at the sheltered site due to a longer growing period and survival of larger fronds. Delayed growth in the cooler spring resulted in smaller fronds and lower potential production of tetraspores by early summer. Yet in the warmer year, rapid initial growth caused higher sensitivity to damage and dislodgement by summer storms, which also limited potential spore production. Antagonistic responses to multiple stressors and disturbances make future predictions of survival and distribution difficult. Fronds of Padina pavonica are sensitive to both temperature and physical disturbances, yet vegetative perennation appears to have enabled population persistence and explained the longevity of remaining populations

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions

Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis

Extreme events such as heat waves have increased in frequency and duration over the last decades. Under future climate scenarios, these discrete climatic events are expected to become even more recurrent and severe. Heat waves are particularly important on rocky intertidal shores, one of the most thermally variable and stressful habitats on the planet. Intertidal mussels, such as the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, are ecosystem engineers of global ecological and economic importance, that occasionally suffer mass mortalities. This study investigates the potential causes and consequences of a mass mortality event of M. edulis that occurred along the French coast of the eastern English Channel in summer 2018. We used an integrative, climatological and ecophysiological methodology based on three complementary approaches. We first showed that the observed mass mortality (representing 49 to 59% of the annual commercial value of local recreational and professional fisheries combined) occurred under relatively moderate heat wave conditions. This result indicates that M. edulis body temperature is controlled by non-climatic heat sources instead of climatic heat sources, as previously reported for intertidal gastropods. Using biomimetic loggers (i.e. 'robomussels'), we identified four periods of 5 to 6 consecutive days when M. edulis body temperatures consistently reached more than 30 °C, and occasionally more than 35 °C and even more than 40 °C. We subsequently reproduced these body temperature patterns in the laboratory to infer M. edulis thermal tolerance under conditions of repeated heat stress. We found that thermal tolerance consistently decreased with the number of successive daily exposures. These results are discussed in the context of an era of global change where heat events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, especially in the eastern English Channel where the low frequency of commercially exploitable mussels already questions both their ecological and commercial sustainability.Funding Agency French Ministere de l'Enseignement Superieur et de la Recherche Region Hauts-de-France European Funds for Regional Economical Development Pierre Hubert Curien PESSOA Felloswhip Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT-MEC, Portugal) IF/01413/2014/CP1217/CT0004 National Research Foundation - South Africa 64801 South African Research Chairs Initiative (SARChI) of the Department of Science and Technology National Research Foundation - South Africainfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Long-term, high frequency in situ measurements of intertidal mussel bed temperatures using biomimetic sensors

At a proximal level, the physiological impacts of global climate change on ectothermic organisms are manifest as changes in body temperatures. Especially for plants and animals exposed to direct solar radiation, body temperatures can be substantially different from air temperatures. We deployed biomimetic sensors that approximate the thermal characteristics of intertidal mussels at 71 sites worldwide, from 1998-present. Loggers recorded temperatures at 10-30 min intervals nearly continuously at multiple intertidal elevations. Comparisons against direct measurements of mussel tissue temperature indicated errors of similar to 2.0-2.5 degrees C, during daily fluctuations that often exceeded 15 degrees-20 degrees C. Geographic patterns in thermal stress based on biomimetic logger measurements were generally far more complex than anticipated based only on 'habitat-level' measurements of air or sea surface temperature. This unique data set provides an opportunity to link physiological measurements with spatially-and temporally-explicit field observations of body temperature

Characterization of ten highly polymorphic microsatellite loci for the intertidal mussel Perna perna, and cross species amplification within the genus

The brown mussel Perna perna (Linnaeus, 1758) is a dominant constituent of intertidal communities and a strong invader with multiple non-native populations distributed around the world. In a previous study, two polymorphic microsatellite loci were developed and used to determine population-level genetic diversity in invasive and native P. perna populations. However, higher number of microsatellite markers are required for reliable population genetic studies. In this context, in order to understand P. perna origins and history of invasion and to compare population genetic structure in native versus invaded areas, we developed 10 polymorphic microsatellite markers. Findings Described microsatellite markers were developed from an enriched genomic library. Analyses and characterization of loci using 20 individuals from a population in Western Sahara revealed on average 11 alleles per locus (range: 5–27) and mean gene diversity of 0.75 (range: 0.31 - 0.95). One primer pair revealed possible linkage disequilibrium while heterozygote deficiency was significant at four loci. Six of these markers cross-amplified in P. canaliculus (origin: New Zealand). Conclusions Developed markers will be useful in addressing a variety of questions concerning P. perna, including dispersal scales, genetic variation and population structure, in both native and invaded areas.Peer Reviewe